Thread: No more powder

Originally Posted by grandpamac

It makes you wonder if the Russians actually had a clear plan and objectives in starting the war in Ukraine. Perhaps the believed their own propaganda over the oppressed Ukrainians wanting a return to their earlier rulers. If they were expecting to be greeted as liberators they were largely mistaken. All the liberators recieved were graves, often unmarked. A very sad event for all concerned which just reinforced that absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Grandpamac.

The whole thing was a shambles from the get go - you don't send in units directly after a month of wargames that have left your supply lines stretched to capacity with shifting consumables up to replace what's been used, your vehicles needing maintenance to get on top of all the glitches a month of solid hard off road use shows up and that's not factoring in fatigue and wear and tear on your people. After the initial failure, the Russians were left with two options - go home as a laughing stock, or double down and remain a laughing stock but with much limited military capacity and a lifetime of shattered families and trauma to deal with (and financial costs). Unfortunately they chose the latter option, which is going to have ramifications around the planet for a long time to come.

Those outfits and countries who relied on Russian supplies of munitions and hardware are now up the creek and will be looking for other sources, and once they've changed suppliers so to speak it will be a hard road going back. 'Western' arms suppliers will be both rubbing their hands together and alternatively shitting bricks as to HOW they can meet supply requirements, as their own Govt purchasing setups will be looking to curtail exports in favour of their own needs and supply shortages. It's bloody interesting, one war in Europe and it does more for world civilian arms control than any number of idealist dreamer politicians and police boffins around the planet. It also likely does more to set the global climate change agenda back than any other one event (maybe discounting the Aussie bushfires and the Tonga eruption). I hear that the Russians are flaring incredible quantities of gas with the pipelines shut down - it's apparently incredibly difficult to seal the wellheads and stop production so they are a little stuffed with regard to shutting gas flow off. It's either shut it off which can dictate a period of months to restart production or flare it for no profit, or sell it. I'd suggest the current gamesmanship with the EU won't last in the face of those decisions but it will be a long game of 'who blinks first'.