(As we have gone off topic for reloading.. mods feel free to put this somewhere more relevant...)
Ok I think the problem has been somewhat identified...
I took up Hunter_Nick 's generous offer to have a close look at the rifle. After inspecting the concentricity of the brass and dismissing the chamber as a potential issue, we removed the bottom metal/trigger guard.
The front tang of the bottom metal has a slight but noticeable bend, so that the front lug on the tang which screws into the forward lug of the receiver, is tilting forward. So.. once the front screw is in place, the bottom metal does not sit flush with the stock or the receiver, the rear part of the trigger guard hangs down about 3/4" if you had the rifle upright. Once the rear screw is tightened, this is obviously placing some twisting tension on the front of the receiver.
My word picture here is probably confusing, I'll get photo to make it clearer.
Anyway, Nick surmised that a small metal shim in the front might help relieve some of the twisting tension, at least to test the theory before I tried to bend things back into shape.
I fired 5 rounds with the shim in place, and there was a significant improvement. A 6" or so group in the same area.. as opposed to the 10-12" of shotgun scatter it performed before.
I then decided to just remove the rear bolt entirely and shoot it with the trigger guard hanging down at the back. It shot 3 rounds in 1" and 2 flyers about 4" away.
I'm now 100% convinced the misaligned trigger guard is to blame, and I will commence trying to tweak it straight.. Pics to come..
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