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I spoke to @Wingman about this after my post... his response was : wear. He has an anecdote about match rifle barrels and how the increase in velocity through wear is managed by the shooter. Interesting.
I possible think that might be it, sounds to be a common thing. I would have never guessed it.
I did work up a 140gr ELD-M load at the start, I might load up a few a see if the velocity has changed aswell.
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