Similar idea to the golden rod, but cheaper, so good idea! What about running wires through a hole and fitting it to the inside wall of the safe? Would be more protected and do the same job. Or get some copper pipe and 90° fittings, and run it through that to protect the element and still transfer heat to the safe.
Regarding humidity vs rusting - I'm shaky on the concept, but unless the safe's truly sealed (basically a rubber gasketed airtight box, which safes usually aren't) moisture will always equalize across an area relative to the air's moisture holding capacity which is controlled by temperature, so I think the purpose of the safe heater is to warm the guns and entire inside safe which should stop condensation and rusting that way? I think most rusting happens when temps drop and moisture precipitates out of the air and condenses onto cold surfaces, so the goal of a safe heater is to maintain a stable environment and keep the inside of the safe, and more importantly the guns above a "normal" condensation temperature rather than try to control moisture itself. A safe heater in a sealed safe would be a steam box, so cause rusting, but a safe heater in a normal safe should in theory have enough air exchange to not cause that. That's the theory at least... whether or not my understanding of condensation and humidity causing rusting is completely correct is another matter.
Kiwi Sapper's lightbulb heaters work well, and has the added benefit of allowing you to see in what are usually very poorly lit enclosures. Just put a guard or transparent shield over the bulb or you'll smash it moving rifles around :p Safe heaters do work, so something must be correct in the theory.
Your alternative is to control moisture by sealing the safe, then sucking the moisture out with a dehumidifier. It's what makes more sense intuitively, but relies on a sealed container and ability to monitor and control humidity constantly. Plus you could crack wood on stocks if you drop your humidity too low, which a dehumidifier certainly could do in a confined sealed space.
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