Thread: Hybrid vs petrol - surprising outcome

Both of our teenage boys are now driving and we needed to put them in a decent vehicle. Because they are unlikely to stay in the area for long after high school, we wanted something that we could hand over to mum when they are gone. As is the norm with us we expect to keep this vehicle at least 10 years. Our current Toyota’s are 10 and 14 years old.


We decided we would make the boys contribute to the purchase of the vehicle and it’s running costs as an important lesson in growing up. When they leave, the remaining family drivers will jointly purchase their share, less depreciation of course. Mum & dad own 50%, the boys 25% each.


If one of them does stay - for example they get a job at Waihi Gold - he will have the choice of a family financed purchase plan to buy the vehicle outright, or he can sell his share and buy his own vehicle. Both boys indicated the latter option would be most likely.


So this initiated a study of what’s what in the vehicle market. I set a budget of $20-25k with two non-negotiables - the vehicle had to have a 5-star safety rating and quality for reasonable insurance for learners. The fuel consumption I assumed would be low, as I assumed a hybrid. I used a fleet management spreadsheet I got from mate to analyse a bunch of different options.


We initially thought we would be buying a Toyota Certified imported Aqua. With the kind of mileage the car would do (70% open road, 30% town), 15,000km p.a., I discovered the little Aqua petrol ICE would be running most of the time and the projected fuel savings from using the battery a lot in town just don’t materialise. I did two quite long test drives in a 40,000km 2019. I got 3.9 L/100km (15km town and 5km open road), then 4.9 L/100km (25km open road and 5km town). I hated the Japanese gobbledygook on the digital displays. I then discovered that the Aqua Hybrid costs three times as much to insure as the Corolla equivalent, plus it comes with an additional $1200 excess! This is because it is one of the most stolen vehicles in New Zealand apparently. $4500 p.a. for the family… fuck that.


I turned my attention to the 2018- on E210 Corolla Hybrid. It was immediately apparent that for any given year or mileage I would be paying a premium of ~25% for the privilege of having batteries and a less powerful petrol engine than the petrol ICE equivalent. But the insurance was sensible - $1500 p.a. (Remember that two of the drivers are 16 and 18.)


I drove both the hybrid and the petrol only versions and was surprised that on the exact same test drives the petrol only version was incredibly frugal - 5.8 L/100km vs the hybrid’s 5.2 L/100km. The open road 100km/h driving really hits the fuel consumption of these hybrids hard. Plus the hybrid is pretty gutless, whereas the 2.0L petrol is quite nippy with plenty of safe overtaking power.


I spoke with the service manager, he showed me the two customer loan cars they’ve been running since new, both 2.0L petrols. The long-term fuel consumption figures for these since new are 5.8 and 6.0 L/100km. He then ran through with me the realities of hybrid battery replacements, what to expect and when. There’s no getting around the fact that if you are buying a secondhand hybrid - even one with a generous 5-year battery warranty - at some point you are going to be coughing up for either new cells or a complete new battery. A new battery is around $4500-5000 dollars from Toyota (good warranty) or $3500 aftermarket (crap warranty). You’re looking at battery replacement sometime around 10 years old, plus or minus a couple of years depending on how the vehicle has been driven. The independent research backs this up.


Another point of reference is my mother’s car. She has the E210 Hybrid (3 years old) and has achieved 5.4 L/100km over 24,000 miles, about 60% open road, 40% town.


So back to the spreadsheet with a bunch of real-world data. The insurance cost kills the viability of the Aqua, stone dead. Assuming the same rate of depreciation over 10 years, it is significantly cheaper to purchase and run the 2.0L petrol Corolla vs the Hybrid equivalent. Any hybrid fuel savings are destroyed by the purchase price premium and battery replacement assumption. I did not expect this outcome, I had just assumed we would be buying a hybrid. I did not realise just how frugal the 2.0L M20a-FKS engine is. Needless to say it is considerably more enjoyable to drive than the gutless hybrid.


There is one other critical assumption that my wife and I have made. Once the boys are gone it is likely we will head off on another adventure somewhere and our vehicles will go into storage again. We’ve done this twice before. We’ve had some excellent advice regarding what storing these hybrid vehicles means in terms of battery degradation. If you park it up for 6-12 months without driving it, look out. It’s counter intuitive but the hybrids that are essential to avoid are the really low mileage ones - if it’s only driven a few ‘000km p.a., walk away! It’s just not getting the battery conditioning required on a very regular basis to keep the State of Health high enough. Once they start to decline it’s a slippery slope. That was the final nail in the coffin for the hybrid.


Big ups to my local dealer for allowing me decent test drives and for being frankly honest about what they are seeing with hybrid maintenance long-term. The conclusion that a petrol only vehicle is the more economical and practical purchase for long-term ownership was a surprise - it might not suit everyone and if your mileage is principally urban or suburban then the fuel savings from the hybrid might mean the economics work in your favour. But there’s a big premium to pay and the battery replacement risk will not go away.


We bought a 2022 Corolla 2.0P with 20,000km and 3 yr warranty with a decent discount, the effort paid off. Surprised but happy with the outcome, learnt a bit along the way.