Thread: Petrol V EV technolgy from America

Originally Posted by Flyblown

I have a comprehensive spreadsheet that has variables updated monthly to solve for the point in time at which it is economical for us to replace my wife’s 2009 Toyota Highlander 3.5L V6, which we have owned since new. Initially on a company sponsored (very heavily discounted) novated lease, at the end of which we bought the car for next to bugger all.

The spreadsheet analyses the whole of cost of ownership of the old car versus two options, a new Corolla Hybrid and a generic EV (which I select manually each month based on what’s going on in the market as it is changing so quickly.)

The speed at which the gap has closed between keeping the old car (for years a no brainer) to a replacement being more economical is quite frightening, hardly surprising.

But the fact is we are still not quite there yet. It is still more economic for us to keep the big car. Plus the intangible feeling of improved safety by being at least as big and heavy as all the Ute drivers we share the road with around here. The towing part is the bit that annoys the fuck out of me because it’s hard to factor in to the equation. It is an irregular activity with this particular car, but when we do it we’re generally towing something quite big and heavy which would be beyond a small hatchback.

i’ll tell you something for free, when we looked at the long-term service life of this vehicle we did not anticipate $3.10 for 91 in 2022.

I haven't quite gone to this level of detail but also often crunch the numbers to see if I should go to an EV.
I commute over 200kms a day so you'd think that going electric would be a no brainer for the fuel savings.

The problem is the only cars that have enough range to do 200kms are all over 50k, considering you can buy a pretty decent little run around for less than 5k the break even point is over 7 years in which time you'll likely need a new battery or some other new technology will come along and make my 7year old car worthless.
Even if I was to charge up while at work (not easily possible) i'd still need to spend a heap of money to get one that will reliably do my 100km commute as in reality you need almost double the rated range.

I can't just get an EV with 100km of range, I need a bit extra range incase of traffic or detouring for some reason or even to allow for bad weather, so really need 150km to be comfortable.
Then you aren't supposed to run the battery from full 100% to 0% every day, really only meant to use the middle 70ish%, so now need 200km of range.
The you need to factor in battery degredation of about 3% per year, so future proofing for the next 5 years means I should get one with 230km range.
230km of range basically puts me back into buying a new 50k EV, so can't even get a cheap used Leaf.

I wondered if you could buy an old leaf with a worn out battery as they are pretty cheap and usually have very low kms but it seems like replacement batteries aren't even available.....

I also ran this though experiement for my mum who needs a new car.
She lives in town and drives very very little but does a few longer trips, say a 100km trip twice a month, and also does a couple of very long trips a year.
In theory an EV would be perfect for here as her daily trips are very short and a longer trip can easily stop to recharge half way.
But even in this scenario an EV doesn't make much sense.

Her current weekly fuel bill would be barely $30 so hardly breaking the bank.
For her twice a month 100km trip she would need to buy a 30 or 40kW used Leaf but even then the range is a little bit lacking (typically around 120-200 for a used one).
For her long trips only having 200kms range would be doable but would still be annoying.
But a used 40kw leaf is still over 30k, a new 40kW leaf is barely cheaper than the 60kW so over 50k.

It hardly seems worth paying 50k for a new long range leaf just so she can save $30 fuel a week, then with the added inconvience of worrying about charging when doing long trips.
For the same 30k can buy her a brand new car, or a good second hand one for considerably less.

I think the only time and EV really make sense is for people living in the city who have a daily commute of 20-70kms and don't frequently drive more than that, or have another vehicle they can use.
Even then it doesn't make sense as you could just buy a PHEV and get your daily commute (or most of it) done on electric, then still have a petrol engine for the longer trips.

So really unless you can buy a used leaf for very little money, then a new EV is basically just a luxury item/status symbol that only make sense for people who were going to spend 60k on a new commuting car anyway. Also means you can save on your fuel bill/RUCs so you can put that money towards a new rolex.