I would go for the synthetic, for that shit hit the fan moment.... when you really really need that warm down jacket...... it WILL be wet, and no use to you. And no use for the rest of the trip, probably.
Nothing touches down for its insulation value, but that comes at a cost ( got to be dry ) The modern synthetics like primaloft and climashield come pretty close. And they will dry out and be of use again. If you wet them out.
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