roll a 65 for 2-3 day overnighters tipping between 10-15kg (obviously on heavier end if tenting and depending how far packing in)
Anything more than 3 days I ususally gnab the 90 litre just so I have more room for the extra food and bits needed for a longer foray.
I don't know how guys get away with 40 litres for a decent overnight either your walking to a camp where all your stuff already is or hope luck is on your side and you don't need a jacket and extra food if you get caught out a bit later than expected
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