Gold, best thing I've read on here today
Have you emailed Bryan Litz or asked the question online (AccurateShooter) ? He is a member there and seems to reply when asked questions like these. Would be interesting to see his response.
Taking a slightly different tack, as someone who has been dealing with the practical realities of limiting vertical spread... In my experience ES is far less of an issue in determining actual vertical spread on the target than shooter error. Unless you go to a machine rest setup that eliminates the shooter, it would be extremely hard to get conclusive results.
Also remember that there is not a direct correlation between MV and strike height on the target. If you have a barrel that is tuned or one that compensates positively due to natural harmonics, you may well find that slower MV shots impact higher...
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