Thread: Climate

This is citizen science
Real world data
I personally know a number of people in my community who have continuous weather records the go back over 50 years and some over 100 years
Same family, same location and same methodology

Sorry about my steam powered mobile phone image.
But zoom in and see the reality that is being played out on the ground all over the world

Originally Posted by akaroa1

This is citizen science
Real world data
I personally know a number of people in my community who have continuous weather records the go back over 50 years and some over 100 years
Same family, same location and same methodology

Sorry about my steam powered mobile phone image.
But zoom in and see the reality that is being played out on the ground all over the world

Attachment 229793

Point of order. The Tonga eruption in 2022 threw 58,000 Olympic swimming pools of water into the atmosphere, which is highly unusual for an erption. Also unusual is that NASA scientists say it will raise the average temperature of the earth for a few years, as well as increasing the amount of water vapour by 10% (eruptions often cool the earth through ash). Result? Loads more rainfall for a while, and it looks like it has had an effect on the northern hemisphere's weather.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-...o-stratosphere
Not denying anthropogenic climate change, but the Tonga eruption is a confounding variable affecting the climate this year, and likely the next couple too. People are using the heatwave to press their point, but they're being disingenuous if they don't acknowledge the climate implications of a highly unusual and large eruption.

On the doom side of things, if our winters are too mild, like this one is, grape harvests the following year will be poor. There will be more chardonnay and less pinot noir as a result. I hate chardonnay.
Identify your target beyond all doubt because you never miss (right?) and I'll be missed.

Tahr, the scientists say very different things, depending on what scientists you listen to. Arguing that "the science says this" seems a bit futile. Because lots of science doesn't say that. And that's true about almost any researched subject under the sun

STC, I agree the south had one of the best summers I can remember. Can't complain really

I wonder how many times kids broke the ice on puddles in Tokoroa this winter as I did when I was a pimply faced pre pubescent and without knowing the answer I would put money on the fact that it will not have been as many as in my youth. Simply stated, winters now are considerably more mild and you would be a fool to think that is not the result of climate change.

100 years is a blink of eye.. appreciate that some people have real data, but recorded single events are not conclusive about a trend.

There were hotter periods in the 1930s...over the current "heat waves" in the US - nobody does that comparison, its not very convenient.

I have seen photos of people standing in the Waimak Gorge with no water in the river from the early 1900's. Pre irrigation and pre the climatic challenges that limit the current set of propagandists knowledge or reflection.

In the 1980s North Otago had almost 10 years of drought, there was hardly any snow on the ski fields for years. What do we blame that on? Saw a bunch a morons trying to say that this years lack of early snow was caused by "climate change" and was likely to be an ongoing problem if we can't save the planet. Pity they weren't around in the 1980s to save us then.

Niwa claimed recording flooding in Gisborne earlier in the year saying it was the most significant in recorded history. Wishart did 5 mins research and found 4 events that exceeded the most recent trauma and rainfall totals. Nina's own records that they used only went back to 2009 apparently - and that is seemingly all that is required before you can make these profoundly stupid and deceitful claims.

Do you seriously think that Banks Pennisular has never received more rainfall in other periods throughout the planets history, other that what your friends have recorded?

Stop presenting statistical outliers as indications of trend. Show me the trend in context.

Stop claiming science proves anything when the constant state of "science backed" media releases cannot understand the difference between an event and a trend.

Originally Posted by Sidney

100 years is a blink of eye.. appreciate that some people have real data, but recorded single events are not conclusive about a trend.

There were hotter periods in the 1930s...over the current "heat waves" in the US - nobody does that comparison, its not very convenient.

I have seen photos of people standing in the Waimak Gorge with no water in the river from the early 1900's. Pre irrigation and pre the climatic challenges that limit the current set of propagandists knowledge or reflection.

In the 1980s North Otago had almost 10 years of drought, there was hardly any snow on the ski fields for years. What do we blame that on? Saw a bunch a morons trying to say that this years lack of early snow was caused by "climate change" and was likely to be an ongoing problem if we can't save the planet. Pity they weren't around in the 1980s to save us then.

Niwa claimed recording flooding in Gisborne earlier in the year saying it was the most significant in recorded history. Wishart did 5 mins research and found 4 events that exceeded the most recent trauma and rainfall totals. Nina's own records that they used only went back to 2009 apparently - and that is seemingly all that is required before you can make these profoundly stupid and deceitful claims.

Do you seriously think that Banks Pennisular has never received more rainfall in other periods throughout the planets history, other that what your friends have recorded?

Stop presenting statistical outliers as indications of trend. Show me the trend in context.

Stop claiming science proves anything when the constant state of "science backed" media releases cannot understand the difference between an event and a trend.

Well said Sidney.
But I'll add, I'll put a box of beer on it that not one structure that got damaged in the recent floods was on land that had never been flooded before.
All this "since records began" is the sort of stuff that should be restricted to school projects.
Anyone can stand on a hill over looking a flood/silt plain and see where the water has been up to previously. I'd trust my own eyes over records any day.

If it's not too pointed a question, what the fuck is this doing in the hunting stories section?

As much as I love a good argument (and this is a cracker subject), how about it gets moved to Off Topic?
@7mmsaum how about it?

Originally Posted by Ross Nolan

If it's not too pointed a question, what the fuck is this doing in the hunting stories section?

As much as I love a good argument (and this is a cracker subject), how about it gets moved to Off Topic?
@7mmsaum how about it?

Unfortunately, like many threads on here, it started out discussing the implications of a widely accepted premise on hunting, and quickly devolved into conspiracy theory and self-interested political rants.

I, for one, was thinking about this just the other day. Aside from bigger issues of resilience & adaptation, my ability to harvest wild game will become more critical as other sources of protein become increasingly expensive (fuelled on one hand by rampant population growth and on the other by increasing production costs as the industry is forced to introduce environmental impact mitigation measures).

How the animals I hunt will adapt to climate change is of much interest to me if I want to continue to be successful.

Originally Posted by mopheadrob

Unfortunately, like many threads on here, it started out discussing the implications of a widely accepted premise on hunting, and quickly devolved into conspiracy theory and self-interested political rants.

I, for one, was thinking about this just the other day. Aside from bigger issues of resilience & adaptation, my ability to harvest wild game will become more critical as other sources of protein become increasingly expensive (fuelled on one hand by rampant population growth and on the other by increasing production costs as the industry is forced to introduce environmental impact mitigation measures).

How the animals I hunt will adapt to climate change is of much interest to me if I want to continue to be successful.

Population growth and interference from the experts that live in Urban centres aside - You won't be able to tell, you haven't got enough time

Sure does seem things are generally warmer these days, by my own anecdotal experience. Only 10 years ago I had to regularly break the ice on the sheep drinking water, but this winter we've only had a bit over half a dozen frosts I think, and pretty mild too.
But I don't believe the people that say this warming is caused by humans. It seems this type of people are "greenies" using their beloved climate change as a big stick to beat their socialist drum, telling me what i cant do and can do, and that i dont pay enough taxes.
If the earth's temperature slowly changes, which I think it does over time, then us pathetic little humans aren't going to stop it.j

there are 2 unknowns here that are far from proven (contrary to what some actors like to claim)

1) an actual increase in temperature

2) whether human activity is the main driver of it.


What is well proven however is that there have been periods in this planets history, where it was significantly warmer (forests in antarctica, no ice on poles) and significantly colder (recent ice age).

Originally Posted by STC

there are 2 unknowns here that are far from proven (contrary to what some actors like to claim)

1) an actual increase in temperature

2) whether human activity is the main driver of it.


What is well proven however is that there have been periods in this planets history, where it was significantly warmer (forests in antarctica, no ice on poles) and significantly colder (recent ice age).

Yep..

its a longer list than that though....

how about...

3) Putting a price on Carbon will reverse carbon outputs

4) Even if it were possible to reduce human carbon emissions, no one can show the benefits that will result from the massive costs incurred.

5) Pretty much every predictive model created since the start of this hysteria has been wrong.

6) Long term high profile advocates and promoters of this hysteria have been proven to be wrong in relying on these predictions and no-one calls them to account. Seemingly gotten a lot richer though.

"The glory which is built upon a lie soon becomes a most unpleasant incumbrance. ... How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and how hard it is to undo that work again!" - Mark Twain

Originally Posted by Sidney

Yep..

its a longer list than that though....

how about...

3) Putting a price on Carbon will reverse carbon outputs

4) Even if it were possible to reduce human carbon emissions, no one can show the benefits that will result from the massive costs incurred.

5) Pretty much every predictive model created since the start of this hysteria has been wrong.

6) Long term high profile advocates and promoters of this hysteria have been proven to be wrong in relying on these predictions and no-one calls them to account. Seemingly gotten a lot richer though.

It is easier to make people believe a lie than it is to get them to believe they have been fooled, that is for sure.

Well said Sidney.
But I'll add, I'll put a box of beer on it that not one structure that got damaged in the recent floods was on land that had never been flooded before.
All this "since records began" is the sort of stuff that should be restricted to school projects.
Anyone can stand on a hill over looking a flood/silt plain and see where the water has been up to previously. I'd trust my own eyes over records any day.

Yep..

People standing in desperation on a flood plain wondering why the silt has destroyed their orchards? I sympathise... but its a flood plain. Did you seriously believe that it has never happened before? Its like having your children lecturing you on how to look after their children.

Perhaps if we didn't get our data from incompetents like Niwa, who like to be taken by surprise by everything that happens, we might have a population that understands risk a little better?

Originally Posted by Sidney

Yep..

People standing in desperation on a flood plain wondering why the silt has destroyed their orchards? I sympathise... but its a flood plain. Did you seriously believe that it has never happened before? Its like having your children lecturing you on how to look after their children.

Perhaps if we didn't get our data from incompetents like Niwa, who like to be taken by surprise by everything that happens, we might have a population that understands risk a little better?

I agree that in many situations the devastation (HB) was a natural consequence of where the assets were geographically, but that does not explain away the magnitude of the event or the increasing frequency of them. Anyone who is in touch with the natural environment, as hunters ought be, should to be aware of the subtle and not so subtle signs that things are not at all well. You are correct that none of us will live long enough to know the outcome but in the here and now I think we need to be taking action to mitigate the likely effects and damage. God knows how we will afford it. I am quite glad actually that I am leaving.