Thread: Darwin is getting slow in his old age.

Originally Posted by big_foot

When stricter gun controls are introduced gun crime goes up, purely because what was ok yesterday is not ok today, this is despite the fact that gun related violence goes down. Im not good at explaining this shit (hence the first sentence in this post) but can you catch my drift?

Ok Let's deal with this one, and then I need to spend some time drawing a picture to counter Beavis

@big_foot, yes, if you define "gun crime" purely as the infringement type offences that occur after a law change (being in possesion of an "E-cat" magazine etc), then I imagine you might well see a rise. And even more so if the law is drafted poorly. Also depends on how heavy handed the police are in enforcing those regulations. So I don't see how that tells us much at all... Let's be honest with each other, that is a bit of a "bullshit and lies" type argument that the pro-control guys get accused of... no ?

In stats, the one thing which is really easy to measure all over the world is DEATH. Very hard for the police to fudge the numbers because other sectors like doctors, coroners etc become involved. There is also not really a chance of people not reporting it like what happens with other types of crimes... And we don't look at the raw numbers, but rather at the numbers expressed in terms of population, because that gives us a way to measure one country to another.

Originally Posted by ebf

Ok Let's deal with this one, and then I need to spend some time drawing a picture to counter Beavis

@big_foot, yes, if you define "gun crime" purely as the infringement type offences that occur after a law change (being in possesion of an "E-cat" magazine etc), then I imagine you might well see a rise. And even more so if the law is drafted poorly. Also depends on how heavy handed the police are in enforcing those regulations. So I don't see how that tells us much at all... Let's be honest with each other, that is a bit of a "bullshit and lies" type argument that the pro-control guys get accused of... no ?

In stats, the one thing which is really easy to measure all over the world is DEATH. Very hard for the police to fudge the numbers because other sectors like doctors, coroners etc become involved. There is also not really a chance of people not reporting it like what happens with other types of crimes... And we don't look at the raw numbers, but rather at the numbers expressed in terms of population, because that gives us a way to measure one country to another.

I fully agree, I only waded in because it seems one party is arguing that gun crime is going up and the other was arguing that gun violence was going down, both of which could very well be true.

I take random stats that people use to support their argument with a grain of salt, heard a cracker the other day apparently wearing a bicycle helmet increases the injury rate..wtf are they counting the fat kid catching his 2nd chin in the buckle and little girl getting her hair caught in the padding velcro

Originally Posted by big_foot

I take random stats that people use to support their argument with a grain of salt, heard a cracker the other day apparently wearing a bicycle helmet increases the injury rate..wtf are they counting the fat kid catching his 2nd chin in the buckle and little girl getting her hair caught in the padding velcro

That was on the telly the other day, some cycling groups are trying to get the law reversed.

Here ya go Beavis:

Had to rework the deaths/100k to fit on the same X scale, so multiplied it by 100 (per 10M).

You can use stats to justify almost anything.... 98% of people know this......

Originally Posted by veitnamcam

That was on the telly the other day, some cycling groups are trying to get the law reversed.

Yea, I havent done any research on the subject but seems like a pretty backwards move, there other argument was that a lot of people dont like to cycle because wearing a helmet puts them off...... seriously wtf do these people smoke

And then if we compare Aus to USA.

Numbers are not that important, different societies have different rates, but look at the slope of the line...

1980 looks like a great year

Originally Posted by ebf

Here ya go Beavis:

Had to rework the deaths/100k to fit on the same X scale, so multiplied it by 100 (per 10M).

Attachment 32802

Does that not basically mirror the statistics proposed by "wish"? I could imagine that other factors like increasing population and a changing of culture such as a move towards urbanisation and less overall exposure over all to shooting might play a part. It would also be interesting but probably impossible to see who the victims of gun homicide were. Were there more criminals killing each other in previous decades? Have firearm users evolved into a more safety conscious entity resulting in fewer unintentional firearm killings? Has the reduced availability of guns made an impact on overall suicide rates, or just ones involving one specific method (guns)?

All questions which are impossible to answer looking at raw numbers.

Originally Posted by Toby

1980 looks like a great year

That is the year I was born, shit got real....

Beavis, the raw data might be the same, but the interpretation sure as hell is not

"Wish" (a anti gun control lobby group by the way), tried to somehow prove that gun deaths in Aus are not decreasing, or that the decrease is not related to legislation implemented in 1996. The way they try to do this is by referring to the "difference" in yearly numbers. All that this proves is that the decrease is roughly linear...

Take a look at the Aus/USA graph. See what happens immediately following 1996 ? Those numbers are per 100k population, and compensate for increases or decreases in population. The anti control groups claim that "gun-crime" is falling in the USA. In my book the most serious consequence of gun crime, gun negligence etc is death. The green line seems to be fairly flat to me...

This is a shit thread.


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Originally Posted by BRADS

This is a shit thread.


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Agree or disagree with the topic being discussed but at least for once it hasn't degenerated into another round of handbags at dawn.

@Beavis, in the instance of Australia, I do not think it is necessarily a reduced availability of firearms...it is just that semi-automatic guns are no longer in the mix.

Brads, it might be a shit thread but hey, I find it cool that we can discuss this matter...most of us on here have grown up with guns and learnt from early ages how to use them and how to be safe with them...the psychology of it all is fascinating...shit thread, yes maybe you are right...13 people died on the roads this holiday period...I dont see anyone pushing for vehicles of personal use being banned...kind of ironic, methinks...